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Coverage

Southeast Asia

Project time

January – June 2006

Objectives/scope

Georeferenced analysis of subsistence energy condition in SE Asia as contribution to the Poverty Mapping Project of FAO. Analysis of woodfuel consumption pattern and supply potential as of 2000 (Phase 1) and projected scenarios for 2015 (Phase 2).

Institutional settings

FAO Interdepartmental collaboration: Environment and Natural Resources Service (SDRN - Poverty Mapping Project) and Forest Product Service (FOPP – Wood Energy)

Scale/resolution

Raster analysis resolution: 30 arc-second grid (0.92x0.92 km at equator); Sub-national units of 2nd and 3rd level (where available)

Demand features

Woodfuel consumption for 2000 from i-WESTAT study (FAO 2005a) and other sub-national studies; Distribution of 2000 urban and rural population by 30 arc-second cells classified as rural and urban (FIVIMS). 2015 demand scenarios were based on predicted population growth only (BAU scenario) and on the consumption models produced by the Global Forest Products Outlook Study (GFPOS scenario) (FAO, 2001b)

Supply features

Woody biomass stock and productivity for main land cover classes and by ecological zones was based on existing references (forest inventories and other studies) and deduction of industrial roundwood production. Mapping was based on Regional version of Global Land Cover (GLC 2000) and (MODIS) Vegetation Continuous Field (VCF) Tree Cover Map. 2015 supply scenarios were estimated using change rates in FRA country data, FRA 1990 and 2000 Remote Sensing Survey and FAO agricultural projections. Minimum, medium and maximum productivity variants were produced.

Integration features

2000 baseline: local balance, within 30 arc-second cells, between the potential sustainable productivity available for energy uses and the total woodfuel consumption.
2015 scenarios: local balance between the 3 supply variants and two demand scenarios (BAU and GFPOS)

Woodshed/bio-shed analysis

Not implemented.

Integration with other aspects

Balance maps depicting the situation in 2000 were combined with poverty-related indicators in order to group the population of the countries into categories determined by the combination of woodfuel availability and poverty. See Figure 15 in Section “Integration of socio-economic aspects/issues” of main text.

Findings/conclusions

The areas presenting more or less marked deficit conditions covered, in 2000, some 14 percent of the area of the sub-region but effecting almost half of the sparse rural population. Of this, some 35 percent – i.e. 45 million people – live in areas with acute deficit conditions.
The combination of balance maps with poverty parameters created a new indicator, subsistence energy, in the mapping of extreme poverty, a new dimension of analysis and a new tool for poverty alleviation policies and forestry and energy development planning.

Publications

Drigo R. 2007. Wood-energy supply/demand scenarios in the context of poverty mapping. A WISDOM case study in Southeast Asia for the years 2000 and 2015. Environment and Natural Resources Service (SDRN) and Forest Product Service (FOPP). Environment and Natural Resources Working Paper 27. FAO. ISBN 978-92-5-105710-0.